23
Aug 10

Next Steps

I’m pleased to report that I have accepted an offer to join Carnegie Mellon University’s Heinz College as a post-doctoral fellow.  At Carnegie Mellon, I will be working with Alessandro Acquisti.  I have been following Alessandro’s excellent work on privacy and technology for many years, so I am thrilled to join his team and have him as a mentor.

Alessandro’s team has extensive experience studying privacy in online social networks.  Alessandro and Ralph Gross wrote one of the earliest (and most cited) Facebook privacy papers: Imagined Communities: Awareness, Information Sharing, and Privacy on the Facebook. Last summer, the team published a truly head-turning study, showing that information gleaned from social network profiles could be used to predict social security numbers.  Most recently, Alessandro’s work was featured in Jeffrey Rosen’s New York Times Magazine article The Web Means the End of Forgetting.

I look forward to building on my current areas of research – privacy, identity and support in social networks – while being exposed to new opportunities and new challenges at CMU.  Speaking of challenges, the next challenge is a dissertation defense (later this fall) and then a move to Pittsburgh.  It has been a while since I’ve been to Pittsburgh, so I’m open to advice!


16
Aug 10

Pricing a used Honda Odyssey

One of the fascinating things about Craigslist is its informal post-sale sanctioning system.  That is, if you don’t take down your post after you sold the item, you get an increasingly annoying stream of emails from people asking questions about the item.  This continues, of course, until you actually remove the post offering the item you sold.  It is a great example of virtual community gardening.

Because of this sanctioning system, we can make a reasonable inference that items that have been taken off of Craigslist have been sold.  The items that have short lifespans on Craigslist are desirable – they are a good value, priced properly – and those with long lifespans are either unwanted or improperly priced.  I’ve recently been in the market for a used car (cough, a minivan), so I’ve been collecting information about the cars offered on Craigslist and their lifespans on the service. By looking at prices and lifespans (and a few other variables), can we automatically identify cars that offer the greatest value?

What follows are some charts from a simple survival analysis of the last 30 days of Honda Odyssey sales on Craigslist in Raleigh/Durham.  The de-duped dataset includes 55 cars (out of about 130 posts). Before you read much into the data, many of the variables I explored (mileage, model year, etc.) weren’t significant predictors of “hazard” (that is, sale). If you were able to get this data on a larger scale, it does seem likely you’d be able to identify patterns of value. That said, there is a lot of randomness is a car’s quality once it has been driven, so the value of such a model-based approach would only be in prioritizing potentially under-priced cars.

n.b.: You could also do this sort analysis on want-ads. Want-ads have a great sanctioning system, as it is pointess to pay for an ad after you’ve sold your car.

p.s.: Perhaps what is charming about Craigslist is that there isn’t any meaningful historical data. This likely generates more variability in price, leading to the perception that you can find great deals (which you can!).


04
Aug 10

Why Gender is Important in Facebook

If you recall, a few years ago Facebook forced all users to select a gender if they wanted to continue using the site.  This move generated a little controversy – some individuals didn’t feel comfortable with sharing the information, or fitting into a gender classification.  Facebook responded:

However, we’ve gotten feedback from translators and users in other countries that translations wind up being too confusing when people have not specified a sex on their profiles. People who haven’t selected what sex they are frequently get defaulted to the wrong sex entirely in Mini-Feed stories. For this reason, we’ve decided to request that all Facebook users fill out this information on their profile.

Just today, I discovered (via the R Bloggers news feed) an video on the use of R in corporations like Google and Facebook.  The representative of the Facebook data team talked about some exploratory data analysis they did in 2007.  The finding?  “If a user comes on more than once and is willing to give Facebook a very basic piece of information – their gender – that seems to be the strongest predictor of whether they will stay on the site.”

I’m not looking to stir up any controversy.  Rather, I think it is an interesting example of analytics-based development, of research informing design.  Of course, the challenge of translating research into practice is immense.  Are there critical differences between individuals that share gender and those that don’t?  Did a forced gender-selection process invalidate the predictive model?  Was the controversy over gender selection worth the predicted benefit?  Perhaps Facebook’s 500 million users owe more to gender selection than we can imagine.

Anyway, the video has some age on it, but I did enjoy hearing about Facebook’s use of R (the other analytic examples provided are cited in the “Maintained Relationships on Facebook” report, plus there are a few ICWSM papers, I believe).  You can find the full video here (doesn’t look like embed is supported).


21
Jul 10

iTunes vs. Amazon as Survey Incentive

When surveying college-age students, Amazon and iTunes e-gift cards are frequently offered as incentive for participation [1].  While I’ve frequently heard that students prefer iTunes, the administrative burden of sending iTunes gift cards is high.  The iTunes store limits each account to $100 dollars in gift card purchases per month, so if your compensation needs go over $100, you have to schlep to the store, buy gift cards, and put them in the mail.  Amazon, on the other hand, offers an effortless interface for sending gift cards and does not appear to have an unreasonable monetary restriction.  So if you choose the ease of Amazon over the shiny iTunes brand, do you lose anything?

Recently, I ran a survey of first-year students at UNC that tested preferences toward compensation.  The survey offered a dual-tier lottery compensation: Participants were entered to win an iPod touch or their choice of three gift certificates (See [2] for more on dual-tier incentives).  The three gift card choices were iTunes, Amazon, or a popular on-campus cafe, in the amount of ten dollars.  Response to the survey was good, by email-solicitations standards, at 31% (n~1200).  Males were slightly underrepresented, as is commonly the case.

So, what gift cards did my students prefer?  Clearly, the students preferred gift cards to iTunes (n=442) and Amazon (n=442) over the local cafe (n=131).  And we don’t really need any significance tests to see that the difference between iTunes and Amazon is a wash (p=.8406).

When conducting surveys, we’re not always interested in a large homogeneous population.  Sometimes we’re interested in sub-populations, such as certain genders, ages, or ethnicities.    Breaking the perferences out by gender, visual inspection indicates that female students prefer iTunes over Amazon, while male students prefer Amazon over iTunes.  Since neither population comes close to preferring the local cafe, I will focus on the difference between iTunes and Amazon for the rest of the analysis (i.e. drop the people who prefer the Local Cafe).

Of the students that selected Amazon or iTunes, we see that 53% of female students prefer iTunes, 47% Amazon.  Of males, 58% prefer Amazon, 42% iTunes.  The Chi-square test indicates a relationship between gender and preference (p=.001), and within-gender Chi-square goodness of fit tests indicate that while the female student preference difference is insignificant (.0922), the male preference towards Amazon is significant (p=.0064).

To test some higher order interactions, I employed a logistic regression model to test the effects of gender and a few other covariates.  First, since much of my sample is from NC, I tested to see if NC residency might contribute towards a preference.  In this model, gender remained significant, but NC residence was not significant (p=.828).  Next, looked to see if GPA might be a factor in preference.  Gender remained significant, and GPA’s p-value was low (p=.081), but not close to significance (directionality was higher GPA’s towards Amazon).

In the last two models, I looked at ethnicity and age.  In the ethnicity model, gender is significant, and only one ethnicity is significant.  Compared to other ethnicities, students who self-report as Asian demonstrate a preference towards Amazon (OR=.158, p=.000).  With age, gender again remained significant, but 19 year old students (compared to 18 year old students) seem to prefer iTunes (OR 1.49, p=.004).  Notably, a gender by age interaction was not significant, however.

To briefly review, it seems that among my population, the anecdotal preference towards iTunes is just that: anecdotal.  This is good news for me, because it is much more complicated to process iTunes gift cards than Amazon gift cards.  Some final notes: This is not really a proper experiment – such an experiment would use completely randomized solicitation.  Also, the presence of the third category (Local Cafe) is potentially troubling if being a fan of a Local Cafe also correlates to, say, being an iTunes fan or an Amazon fan.  Caveat emptor, blog post, not peer reviewed, etc.

1.  I don’t have a citation for this, but I do monitor to a number of email lists that frequently offer research solicitations.  YMMV.

2. See Li, Kaiwen (2006).  Student Preference for Survey Incentive.  UC Davis Student Affairs Research & Information Tech Report.

Finally, I promise that Amazon has not compensated me in any way, say, by sending me a bunch of gift certificates or a Nikon 12-24mm DX lens or anything like that.


30
Jun 10

Smaller, better, slower

On the O’Reilly Radar Blog, Linda Stone posted an interesting expansion on comments in the recent Economist article featuring Freedom.  Stone had been bearish on the general idea of Freedom and its ilk:

Ms Stone says Freedom and other such programs are “a first step”, since anyone who installs and uses one of them is admitting that there is a problem, and “something needs to shift”. But the next step is to go beyond a software crutch, Ms Stone says, and to learn to change one’s behaviour without the need for full-screen modes and internet-disabling utilities.

In the blog post, she expands on the general concept:

I’m not opposed to using technologies to support us in reclaiming our attention. But I prefer passive, ambient, non-invasive technologies over parental ones. Consider the Toyota Prius. The Prius doesn’t stop in the middle of a highway and say, “Listen to me, Mr. Irresponsible Driver, you’re using too much gas and this car isn’t going to move another inch until you commit to fix that.” Instead, a display engages us in a playful way and our body implicitly learns to shift to use less gas.

With technologies like Freedom, we re-assign the role of tyrant to the technology. The technology dictates to the mind. The mind dictates to the body. Meanwhile, the body that senses and feels, that turns out to offer more wisdom than the finest mind could even imagine, is ignored.

I’d suggest reading the whole post – it’s good and very thought provoking – but I take issue with the central premise of Stone’s argument, that it’s just a matter of time until we “create personal technologies that are prosthetics for our beings.”

Here’s my argument:  There’s no question that Freedom is a tyrant: but Freedom doesn’t control you, it controls technology.  And I have to believe that to many industry insiders, this is an uncomfortable direction for technology to take.

It is not controversial to claim that the dominant ideology of computing in the modern era has been “bigger, better, faster.”  In fact, this ideology – the connection between technological progress and advancement as a civilization – has stuctured the way we think about ourselves and other societies for hundreds of years.  In the epilogue to his excellent book Machines as the Measures of Men, Michael Adas writes:

The long-standing assumption that technological innovation was essential to progressive social development came to be viewed in terms of a necessary association between mechanization and modernity.  As Richard Wilson has argued, in American thinking, the “machine and all of its manifestations – as an object, a process, and ultimately a symbol – became the fundamental fact of modernism.”

Since the origins of the computing industry, Ruth Schwartz Cowan argues in A Social History of Technology, the focus has been squeezing productivity out of  machines and operators.  This logic of practice was inscribed to the industry “because the government [the dominant early contractor of the computing industry], fighting the protracted cold war with the Soviet Union, believed that it would need better and better computation facilities…”

This constant drive towards efficiency has many rewards: Transistors that are orders of magnitude cheaper than ones produced just years prior, Terabyte disks that sit on desktops, and the iDevices that I so covet.  My argument does not downplay the value of such advances, and to do so would be foolish.

Rather, I argue that the drive towards bigger, better, faster has left us with devices that are out of sync with our work patterns.  To address the growing divergence between our devices and work practice, we’ve constructed and attempted to empiricize the concept of multi-tasking.  Multi-tasking, as we now know, has decreasing marginal effectiveness as task complexity increases.  Multi-tasking fails most those who need it most.

Flipping through the last ten years of CHI, CSCW, and GROUP proceedings, we see an array of systems built to support multi-tasking, to facilitate remote work, to prostheticise our beings.  In these technologies we see the march towards progress, efficiency: bigger, better, faster.

Freedom joins these technologies in the march towards progress and efficiency, but with a different value set: smaller, better, slower.

In the past five or ten years, the devices we use for work have exploded in complexity.  No longer a word processor or spreadsheet, our computers are now televisions, game machines, and – most importantly – a portal to an always-on channel of social exchange.  Yet because these changes have been realized in code as opposed to form, we think of the device as static.  A computer is just a computer.  Rather, I see devices that are increasingly beginning to fail the market, with disastrous consequences for productivity, progress, and self-worth.

Freedom has always been about control.  It was first designed to reclaim space – to return the pre-internet state of a coffee shop that has suddenly gone wi-fi.  Only through extensive use have I realized that Freedom is about pushing back at the device itself, a device that has failed the work market in a drive toward progress.

In closing, Linda Stone asks “What tools, technologies, and techniques will it take for personal technologies to become prosthetics of our full human potential?”  First, we must understand that we, humans, are not the problem.  Second, we must reconsider our relationships with our devices, and examine with open minds where our devices have failed us.  Third, we must change the ideology of the productivity industry, moving away from bigger, better and faster and towards smaller, better, and slower.

Of course, this is easier said than done.  And it will almost certainly come from outside industry, which is constrained by its dominant logic of practice.  But I can’t help but think that we’re at the beginning of something big.


21
Jun 10

Farhad Manjoo on Freedom

Farhad Manjoo, of Slate and the New York Times, has featured Freedom in his Killer Apps video cast for Slate. I love the video!


18
Jun 10

Announcing Anti-Social

I’m happy to announce my newest productivity software: Anti-Social. Anti-Social is a neat little productivity application for Macs that turns off the social parts of the internet. When Anti-Social is running, you’re locked away from hundreds of distracting social media sites, including Facebook, Twitter and other sites you specify.

I developed Anti-Social because of a problem I ran into consistently with Freedom – I loved being offline, but found myself frustrated when I needed to look up a citation or a new article when Freedom was running. Anti-Social allows you to tune out the social parts of the web – Twitter, Facebook, etc. – while allowing you access to research materials, Google, and other invaluable resources. I’ve been using it for the past few weeks while working on an R&R – Anti-Social allowed me to remain in focused writing mode, while allowing me to research as I revised the manuscript.

Together, Freedom and Anti-Social represent an emergent computing phenomena I’ve been calling “80% computing.” By taking problems that are socially or computationally hard (e.g. changing habits, reducing compulsive surfing), and providing imperfect solutions, I’ve found there’s an interesting spot in the market. I wonder what other highly complex problems (e.g. productivity) we could solve with 80% solutions?  If we move away from perfection as a computational standard, and allow individuals to adapt their practice to imperfect technologies, we may be able to develop some very simple solutions to very challenging problems.

Along those lines, the Economist recently profiled my software in a wonderful article. I’ll quote at length:

“CLEAR your screen and clear your mind.” That is the philosophy behind a new wave of dedicated software utilities, and special modes in word-processing packages and other applications, that do away with distractions to enable you to get on with your work. The problem with working on a computer, after all, is that computers provide so many appealing alternatives to doing anything useful: you can procrastinate for hours, checking e-mail, browsing social-networking sites or keeping up with Twitter.

But in its severity and simplicity, Freedom (for Macintosh and Windows) may be the ultimate tool to ward off distractions: the virtual equivalent of retiring to a remote getaway, or going on a writers’ retreat, to get things done.

But fans of Freedom are not concerned by such philosophical niceties; they use it because it makes them more productive. Peter Sagal, the host of the American public radio show “Wait Wait…Don’t Tell Me!”, is one such fan. He has no trouble writing to a strict deadline at work. But outside work, “I simply can’t resist the call of a website or an RSS feeder or now my Twitter feed. I simply can’t do it,” he says. Before he started using Freedom he managed to write a book, but only by unplugging his cable modem to cut off his internet access. “But that was too easy to plug back in,” he says. The internet, he grumbles, has “murdered” his ability to do extracurricular creative work, such as writing books, plays and screenplays.

Hardware and software are usually sold on the basis that they can do more, do things faster or have whizzy new features. There is clearly a place for products that are simple to use and hide complexity—a hallmark of Apple’s products. It is perhaps more surprising that there also seems to be demand for products that disable features. But for people trying to get things done, a hobbled computer may in fact be more useful than a fully functional one, for an hour or two at least. Temporarily worse can, in some ways, be better.


Artwork from the Economist.

Of note, the New York Post also ran an article that prominently featured Freedom and Anti-Social. The title of the article was a classic Post headline: Fatal Distraction.

I should close with the following. First, I am aware that spending time writing anti-procrastination software is actually meta-procrastination. Second, Anti-Social really is great. Check it out. It is a revelation to be on the un-social Internet. Finally, I’m waiting for Peter Sagal to come and ask me for a percentage of my sales. He is simply too kind with his advocacy of Freedom!