January, 2008


30
Jan 08

The WSJ peers into the future…

A few days ago, the WSJ ran an interesting article entitled Thinking about Tomorrow, in which a reporters talked to a number of futurists, etc. about what technology is going to look like ten years from now. I’ve got a quote in there about social technology, which was a nice surprise! I’m not sure how long the piece will stay online for free, so if you’re interested in reading, check it out here.

In other news, the Oxford SDP will be accepting applications through February 20 – three more weeks. I can’t recommend this program enough to fellow doctoral students.


28
Jan 08

How many Americans use social networking sites?

I spent a few hours last week trying to track down good statistics on SNS adoption for a chapter I was writing. The stats generally break down into one of three categories: 1) Self-reports from social network sites, 2) Localized studies (adoption at campus X) or 3) Population samples (Pew). The Pew Internet and American Life project has the best statistics around on youth adoption (12-18), but I couldn’t find a recent number that is a broader population sample.

Thankfully, Pew’s Research Center for People and the Press solved my problem with a report entitled “Internet’s Broader Role in Campaign 2008.” In this survey, social networking site use was explored, with the researchers finding that 22% of Americans use SNS. Broken down by age range, 67% of those age 18-29, 21% of those 30-39, and 6% of those 40+ use SNS. Based on 1430 respondents, margin of error should be about +/- 3%. This is a nice statistic for those who have been relying on self-reports and press accounts.

Update: To put these into “absolute” numbers, I’ve used the most recent census population estimates (11/07). Note, both the Pew statistics and census statistics are confidence samples, so the combined margin of error applies.

Statistical breakdown:

  • US SNS users aged 12-14: 5,560,749* (45% of total population 12-14: 12,357,222)
  • US SNS users aged 15-17: 8,331,631* (65% of total population 15-17: 13,018,174)
  • US SNS users aged 18-29: 34,251,555* (67% of total population 18-29: 51,121,724)
  • US SNS users aged 30-39: 8,599,930* (21% of total population 30-39: 40,952,050)
  • US SNS users aged 40+: 8,235,988*,** (6% of total population 40+: 137,266,473)
  • Total US SNS users (excluding ages less than 12): 64,979,853 (+/- ~4,000,000)

*Notes on Margin of Error: US Census standard 90%, Pew hasn’t released the statistical evaluation on the 2008 survey.
** This includes individuals aged 40-100. An appropriate methodology would oversample younger users in this range, likely reducing this total population.

Links to Pew Studies:


24
Jan 08

Myspace’s data disaster

Earlier this week, a student in my class pointed us to this story, describing a security vulnerability in Myspace that allowed private pictures to be viewed by anyone. It’s not the first time Myspace has been exploited in this manner, but it was certainly creepy. A followup story reveals the staggering impact of the vulnerability. Wired’s Kevin Poulsen writes:

A 17-gigabyte file purporting to contain more than half a million images lifted from private MySpace profiles has shown up on BitTorrent, potentially making it the biggest privacy breach yet on the top social networking site.

By then, DMaul, a denizen of the online forum TribalWar.com who declined to reveal his name, used an automated script to run nearly 44,000 MySpace user profiles through one of the ad-supported sites, MySpacePrivateProfile.com — a process he says took about 94 hours. He rolled those images into a single file and seeded it to The Pirate Bay, a popular BitTorrent tracking site, on Sunday, advertising it as “pictures taken exclusively from private profiles.”

The scope of this breach is staggering, especially when one considers the method of distribution. Like in other data breaches, once the data hits a torrent network, there’s simply no way to recover or erase the leakage. Individuals who had their data compromised can hope for security through obscurity, but they can never hope to reclaim their images from the hard drives they now inhabit.

This episode is frightening on a number of levels. As a system can’t be hacker-proof, there will always be individuals seeking to exploit and gain access to private information. In this attack, we see a basic crawling/caching – but what if it had been deployed as an open proxy, where individuals interested in seeing private pictures fed the system with id’s, and the proxy simply cached and shared everything? Social network sites seem especially vulnerable to the proxy attack, and I shudder to think what might have happened if this attack was the work of more than one determined individual.

This also reinforces the false, trivial nature of privacy on these sites (as Valleywag says, “your privacy is an illusion”). The only thing separating one’s private content from public content is an if/else loop, and if it fails once, that’s enough for a massive incident. Of course, this doesn’t apply only to social network sites – think of anywhere you’ve stored mass amounts of private information: your web-based email, your friends-only journal, your photo-sharing account. Any and all of it may be public one day, all it takes is a vulnerability and determined screen-scraper.

And so it seems the only option is to disappear from the grid, or to adopt Hasan Ali’s radically transparent approach. If it were only that simple. It seems that a critical new literacy is audience control – being able to understand the population to which you are projecting, as well as the costs and benefits of data leaks. This is not as simple as it seems, and it certainly takes some a joy out of the seemingly boundary-less web. At the same time, it is hard to discount the triviality of these attacks; in 19 hours, 500,000 pictures were collected and seeded to torrent networks. That is a harsh reality.

Update: Terrell posts his informed opinion here.
Update 2: Privacy expert Michael Zimmer shares his opinion.


17
Jan 08

Development Approaches to Writing?

I know that many of my readers have tackled large writing projects (books, dissertations, etc.), so I’m hoping you can help me out. As I begin my thesis, I can’t help but look at it as somewhat of a software development project. While the creative process is different, the machinations are similar: I’ll be adding or editing lines (of text) and referencing objects (citations), and I’ll be stylizing and formatting the material. It’s a development process, with different content.

Here’s the problem I face. With software development, I use version control and project management software (Trac), I’ve got multiple backups on different machines, I’ve got builds, tests, etc. With writing, I’ve got a binary file that just keeps getting bigger each day. I don’t have an automatic way of seeing multiple versions, I don’t have software that lets me see the changes between checkins, so on and so forth. This is what I’d generally think of as lacking a “sane” development environment, and it is worrying.

A quick note about my writing flow. For a number of reasons, I do most of my writing in Word. My final document is often processed in LaTeX, but the actual writing and saving parts are done in Word. The problem with this is the writing process is a black box; I can’t see what changes I’ve made every day, I don’t have sane merges, etc. I suppose I could have a semblance of this functionality if I just saved a new copy of the document each day, but the idea of searching through 50 copies of a document to figure out what day I added that part and what I was thinking is just nuts, especially when I compare it to the heads-up display I get with Trac.

I’m willing to adopt a new word processor, I’m willing to write a bunch of scripts that will manage a build process. On the other hand, I’m not willing to write my dissertation in TextEdit (which I suppose is the only real answer if I want to follow a development method, sigh). But since I am new at this, I figure there are some tools or tricks that I’m missing. What I’m looking for is sane versioning, integration with SVN a major plus (this would enable me to Trac my project), maybe some advice on methods or tools that have worked for you. My hope is that this post will help others who stumble upon it, so please consider leaving a comment about what worked for you, etc. Thank you!


15
Jan 08

Spring Semester is Here

This semester, I’ll again be teaching my class on Online Social Networks. If you’re interested in checking out the (revised) syllabus, you can download a copy here (pdf).

This semester, I’m looking forward to travel to SF twice. At the end of this month, I’ll be attending Social Graph Foo Camp, and in March I’ll be visiting with David Silver to talk social networks, identity and new literacies. I’m really excited about both of these trips. I’ll also be in Los Angeles to attend the iConference, which looks like a fun and exceptionally busy time. More information about all these events as they get closer to the date.


11
Jan 08

Social Network Clutter

Over the past few months, I’ve found myself increasingly frustrated when I load Facebook. My Newsfeed is a cluttered mess of ads, application spam, and despairingly little real information about my friends. I’ve dutifully clicked the thumbs up/thumbs down icons hundreds of times, giving Facebook a decent preference set, but the problem persists. Newsfeed, which used to inspire me as one of the most innovative information spaces, has quickly lost its utility through this signal/noise imbalance.

When I talk to others, they echo my problems. Newsfeed is “spammy”, you have to squint to find real information. Personally, I’ve found that my visits to Facebook are down as a result – each time I log in it sort of feels like I’ve been given an inbox that’s full of spam and I have to sort it. That is not a good feeling. In an effort to improve Newsfeed (and argue the value of such information spaces), I thought I might work through some of the problems of the proposition.

The fundamental proposition of Newsfeed, like a head’s up display, is to project relevant information to the information consumer in a singular place. Implicit in the projection is editorial control, where certain types of information are promoted and others left to their traditional spaces. Relevance should always be the goals of these spaces; if they are not relevant they pose outlying ability to damage the product. If I am wincing every time I log in to Facebook and see a huge list of spam, it is clear that Newsfeed is damaging my impressions of the product as whole. Designers of Newsfeed-type spaces should understand and adapt to this reality.

Of course, the challenge of a Newsfeed is the multidimensional nature of relevance. You may want information about when friends have added new friends, and I may want information about upcoming events. Arguably, we’re all going to want some individual combination, and to that extent Facebook allows one to tune their Newsfeed preferences. The problem with tuning, however, is that Facebook fails to respect my preferences, sending me miscellaneous stories when the system lacks stories that match my preferences. These non-opted-in stories are spam. Imagine this scenario: you set up your RSS reader, and you read all of your feeds and mark them read. Then you update your reader, but there are no new stories. Instead of just telling you this, your RSS reader finds you a bunch of random stories from blogs you aren’t subscribed to. It’s a broken proposition.

Newsfeed was designed to keep you interested, to keep you logging in again and again. Each time you’d be greeted with fresh information. This is a failure of assumption. I recheck my newsreader after I’ve read all my feeds – people will naturally go back to good information sources, even if there isn’t much information there. We’d rather know that there’s none of the information we’re looking for than tons of the information we aren’t.

Facebook Social Ads Not That GoodTo add insult to injury, my Newsfeed finds itself increasingly inundated with advertisements, such as my favorite one that urges me to go to dental school (hey, maybe Facebook knows something my brain will only figure out ten years from now). Advertisements in the Newsfeed, be they social or not, are also a failed proposition. First of all, they completely lack context, which my brain involuntarily processes as being the least-important item in the Newsfeed. Second, they compete with “good” information. I’m much more likely to click on pictures of my friends than some random Verizon ad, and that’s just the way it’s always going to be. Finally, they pollute the feed, devaluing the information space. It’s as if Google included sponsored links in their organic search results. Any self-respecting Googler would be horrified at that proposition; yes, it would have been lucrative, but it would completely destroy the trust in that information space.

Unfortunately, Facebook’s already polluted Newsfeed, so I’m not sure the trust/value can be regained. And I’m also pretty sure that they’re not going to change their approach any time soon – this short-term revenue is eclipsing the long-term value of creating a useful information space. That doesn’t stop me from wishing for a revamped Newsfeed, one that followed my rules, acted like my RSS reader, and understood the value of a trusted, relevant information space. If Facebook really is in it for the long haul, the Newsfeed should be a space I enjoy, not one I wince at and try to avoid.


9
Jan 08

Practical Unit Structures: Yahoo on an iPhone

Starting a few days ago, Yahoo began intercepting iPhone traffic to Yahoo.com, sending it instead to a Yahoo mobile site. Annoying, and made even worse as Yahoo provides no apparent opt-out – I can’t find a link I can click that will reset my Yahoo.com preferences back to the regular Yahoo homepage.

With a little searching, I was able to find a solution to this problem. If you want to see the regular Yahoo homepage on an iPhone, use the following URL:

http://yahoo.com/?a

A little annoying to remember, but certainly better than having to use the mobile site. Yahoo, please remember that part of the reason I bought an iPhone is so I could browse regular websites. Unless your product is as good as Facebook for the iPhone (and they provide an opt-out), I’m likely not interested in using a stripped-down mobile version. Hopefully Yahoo will listen to its customers and offer an easy opt-out.